Heart attacks: more closely linked than BMIStrong evidence
INTERHEART compared 12,461 people who'd had a heart attack with 14,637 who hadn't, in 52 countries. Each fifth of the ratio carried more risk than the one below it, up to an odds ratio of 2.52 for the top fifth against the bottom (1.75 after other risk factors), and the top two fifths of the ratio accounted for 24.3% of heart attacks, against 7.7% for the top two fifths of BMI. In UK Biobank, each standard deviation of the ratio went with a 49% higher risk of heart attack in women and 36% in men, against 22% and 28% for BMI.
Sources 4, 5
Heart disease and deathStrong evidence
Across 15 studies of 258,114 people, each 0.01 rise in the ratio went with 5% more cardiovascular events. In nine British cohorts (82,864 people), the ratio and waist were each linked with deaths from cardiovascular disease, 15% more per standard deviation, and no measure picked out risk better than the others. In 359,387 Europeans, the top fifth of the ratio carried a 68% (men) and 51% (women) higher risk of death after allowing for BMI. Across 31 cohort studies, each 0.1 higher went with 20% higher mortality, and across 9, each 10 cm more hip went with 10% lower.
Sources 6, 15, 16, 17
Probably a cause, not only a markerEmerging evidence
People with genes for a higher ratio, whatever their BMI, had more type 2 diabetes (an odds ratio of 1.77 per standard deviation) and coronary heart disease (1.46), which the authors called "supportive of a causal association between abdominal adiposity and these outcomes".
Source 14
Against the waist-to-height ratioMixed evidence
For future type 2 diabetes (15 studies), the relative risk per standard deviation was 1.62 for the waist-to-height ratio, 1.63 for waist, 1.55 for BMI and 1.52 for the waist-to-hip ratio. Across 10 studies the waist-to-height ratio was the best at picking out high blood pressure, diabetes and abnormal blood fats. For heart attacks in UK Biobank, the waist-to-hip ratio was a little stronger in women (1.49 against 1.34 per standard deviation) and similar in men (1.36 against 1.33).
Sources 5, 7, 18
It adds little to a health checkStrong evidence
In 58 studies of 221,934 people, BMI, waist and waist-to-hip ratio, alone or together, "do not importantly improve cardiovascular disease risk prediction" once blood pressure, diabetes and cholesterol are known. The ratio was also the least repeatable of the three: measured again, it agreed less well than waist or BMI.
Source 9
Why NICE chose the waist-to-height ratioStrong evidence
NICE's 2022 evidence review found BMI, waist, waist-to-hip and waist-to-height ratios "overall were similar in their accuracy". NICE chose the waist-to-height ratio because it "only requires one additional measurement", its classification "is the same for all ethnicities and sexes", and it conveys the message that "your waist should be half your height". WHO, too, favours waist size "due to the relative ease of obtaining" it: "Measuring hip circumference may be more difficult than measuring waist circumference alone".
Sources 1, 8, 19
Measuring is the weak pointStrong evidence
In 4,492 British adults, people measured their own waist 3.1 cm (men) and 1.9 cm (women) smaller than a technician did, and their ratio correlated only 0.44 and 0.62 with the technician's. In 613 Thai adults, self-measured waist and waist-to-height ratio agreed well with trained staff but the ratio didn't: "Self-reported measurements should not be used to derive the WHR" (the waist-to-hip ratio). In a study of adolescents, trained measurers' waist and hip readings differed by about 1.2 to 1.6 cm.
Sources 1, 10, 11
Other populationsEmerging evidence
WHO's consultation noted studies suggesting lower cut-offs for Asian populations, such as 0.90 for men and 0.80 for women, cut-offs like Europe's in the Middle East, and no African studies of the ratio. It recommended no population-specific values: "Only in populations of Asian descent were differences in risk sufficient to warrant consideration of alternative cut-off points". No UK guideline sets waist-to-hip cut-offs: NICE uses the waist-to-height ratio, with the same bands for everyone.
Sources 1, 2
Weight change, age and life stagesEmerging evidence
With a 4.5 kg weight gain, men's waists grew 4 cm and their hips 2.5 cm, but women's waists 3.3 cm and hips 3.6 cm, so weight change moves men's ratios more. The ratio predicts better in young and middle-aged adults than in older people. A year of gender-affirming hormones lowered the ratio by 0.03 in trans women and raised it by 0.01 in trans men.
Sources 1, 20